By Tim Aiello, MA, LPC, NCC, ADHD-CCSP, ASDCS
Clinical Director & Therapist | Myndset Therapeutics
Introduction: What Is Predictive Coding Theory?
The human brain is constantly processing information from the world around us. One of the most influential theories explaining how this process works is Predictive Coding Theory. This theory suggests that the brain does not simply react to sensory input—it actively predicts what it expects to perceive and updates its expectations based on new information (Friston, 2010).
For most people, predictive coding allows for smooth, efficient processing of the environment. However, for Autistic individuals, this system operates differently, which helps explain many core characteristics of Autism, such as heightened sensory perception, difficulty with sudden change, and the need for structure and predictability (Van de Cruys et al., 2014).
By understanding Predictive Coding Theory, Autistic adults can gain valuable insight into their cognitive strengths and challenges, as well as develop strategies to navigate a world designed for neurotypical processing.
How Predictive Coding Works in the Brain
Predictive Coding Theory is based on the idea that the brain operates as a prediction machine. Instead of passively receiving sensory information, it continuously generates predictions about what it expects to experience. When new sensory input arrives, the brain compares this input to its predictions. If the input matches expectations, the brain efficiently processes it. If there is a mismatch, an error signal is sent, prompting the brain to adjust its expectations or focus more on the unexpected input (Friston & Kiebel, 2009).
For example, if you are walking through your home in the dark, your brain predicts the layout of the space based on past experience. If a chair has been moved unexpectedly, your brain registers an error signal, drawing attention to this unexpected change so you can adjust your movement.
For neurotypicals, predictive coding is relatively flexible—the brain balances past experience with new input, filtering out unnecessary information while adjusting to changes. However, in Autism, research suggests that predictive coding functions differently, leading to heightened sensitivity to sensory input and difficulty adapting to unexpected changes (Pellicano & Burr, 2012).
Predictive Coding in Autism: A Different Cognitive Style
Autistic individuals tend to process information in a more bottom-up fashion, relying more on raw sensory data rather than making broad predictions based on past experiences (Van de Cruys et al., 2014). This leads to several key differences in perception and cognition:
1. Increased Sensory Sensitivity
Since the Autistic brain does not filter out sensory details as easily, every bit of incoming information is treated as important. This can lead to:
Heightened sensory perception—more intense experiences of sounds, textures, lights, and smells (Robertson & Baron-Cohen, 2017).
Sensory overload—difficulty ignoring background noise or adjusting to chaotic environments.
Atypical responses to stimuli—hypersensitivity to bright lights or loud sounds or, in some cases, reduced sensitivity to certain stimuli.
2. Difficulty with Change and Uncertainty
Because neurotypical brains rely on predictive models to anticipate what will happen next, they adapt more easily to change. In contrast, Autistic brains rely less on prediction and more on immediate data, making change more disruptive (Hohwy, 2013). This can result in:
A strong need for routine—predictability reduces the burden of processing constant new information.
Heightened anxiety in uncertain situations—unexpected events require more cognitive effort to process.
Difficulty generalizing information—each new situation is treated as unique, requiring detailed analysis instead of automatic recognition.
3. Enhanced Detail-Focused Thinking
Autistic individuals often excel at noticing fine details that neurotypicals may overlook. This is because their brains process each piece of sensory data individually rather than relying on broad generalizations (Mottron et al., 2006). This can lead to:
Strengths in pattern recognition—valuable in fields like mathematics, engineering, and research.
Deep focus on specialized interests—allowing for expertise in specific areas.
Challenges with summarizing or seeing the "big picture"—requiring more effort to synthesize broad concepts.
Why Predictive Coding Matters for Autistic Adults
Understanding how predictive coding operates in Autism can help individuals develop strategies to manage daily life more effectively.
Managing Sensory Sensitivity
Create structured environments to minimize overwhelming stimuli.
Use noise-canceling headphones or tinted glasses to reduce sensory overload.
Practice mindfulness techniques to regulate sensory input in overwhelming situations.
Coping with Change
Use visual schedules and planning tools to prepare for upcoming changes.
Gradually introduce new experiences to allow the brain time to adjust.
Develop self-regulation strategies such as deep breathing or grounding techniques when faced with unexpected events.
Harnessing Detail-Focused Strengths
Find career paths that value precision and deep analysis (e.g., research, programming, design).
Use structured note-taking methods to organize information more efficiently.
Practice zooming out by intentionally looking for broader patterns when analyzing information.
Conclusion: A Strength-Based Perspective on Predictive Coding in Autism
Predictive Coding Theory provides a powerful explanation for the cognitive differences in Autism, showing why sensory sensitivity, a preference for routine, and detail-focused thinking are fundamental aspects of Autistic perception. Rather than being deficits, these differences reflect a unique way of processing the world that comes with its own strengths and challenges.
By recognizing these neurological differences and developing strategies that support Autistic cognition, individuals can navigate their environments more effectively while embracing their cognitive strengths. Autistic adults are not "overreacting" to sensory input or "rigid" in their thinking—they are processing the world in a way that is deeply analytical, precise, and attuned to detail. With understanding and the right tools, this cognitive style can be an asset in both personal and professional life.
At Myndset Therapeutics, we support neurodivergent adults by providing therapy and strategies that align with their unique cognitive processing styles. Embracing how the Autistic brain works is key to thriving in a world that often prioritizes neurotypical ways of thinking.
References
Friston, K. (2010). The free-energy principle: A unified brain theory? Nature Reviews Neuroscience, 11(2), 127-138. https://doi.org/10.1038/nrn2787
Friston, K., & Kiebel, S. (2009). Predictive coding under the free-energy principle. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 364(1521), 1211-1221. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2008.0300
Hohwy, J. (2013). The Predictive Mind. Oxford University Press.
Mottron, L., Dawson, M., Soulières, I., Hubert, B., & Burack, J. (2006). Enhanced perceptual functioning in Autism: An update, and eight principles of autistic perception. Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders, 36(1), 27-43. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10803-005-0040-7
Pellicano, E., & Burr, D. (2012). When the world becomes 'too real': A Bayesian explanation of autistic perception. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 16(10), 504-510. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2012.08.009
Van de Cruys, S., et al. (2014). Precise minds in uncertain worlds: Predictive coding in Autism. Psychological Review, 121(4), 649-675. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0037665
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